Event Title

Influence of Felon Reenfranchisement on Party Success in State Elections

Advisor(s)

Patrick Kearney; Illinois Mathematics and Science Academy

Discipline

Behavioral and Social Sciences

Start Date

21-4-2021 9:10 AM

End Date

21-4-2021 9:25 AM

Abstract

While America’s 2020 General Election brought public scrutiny to voting rights, felon disenfranchisement remains virtually unchanged. With disparities in state priorities and political affiliations, different regions of the country

are in varying stages of enfranchising felons and face varying hindrances (ACLU 2020).

This study examines political motive of politicians rushing to reenfranchise. The scope was defined as the five elections surrounding a given state’s most significant change to felon enfranchisement law in the past century; Republican and Democratic voter percentages were collected for each of these elections.

Data analytics were first used to measure the change in party shares of the popular vote within a single state’s elections; next, this resultant data was used to create a country-wide model describing trends in party shares of the popular vote. To account for changes in party shares of the popular vote due to shifting population compositions in relation to identity, Census data provided covariates including the population density, mean income, and percentage of the state population which: identified as white, was over 60 years old, identified as male, and was college-educated.

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Apr 21st, 9:10 AM Apr 21st, 9:25 AM

Influence of Felon Reenfranchisement on Party Success in State Elections

While America’s 2020 General Election brought public scrutiny to voting rights, felon disenfranchisement remains virtually unchanged. With disparities in state priorities and political affiliations, different regions of the country

are in varying stages of enfranchising felons and face varying hindrances (ACLU 2020).

This study examines political motive of politicians rushing to reenfranchise. The scope was defined as the five elections surrounding a given state’s most significant change to felon enfranchisement law in the past century; Republican and Democratic voter percentages were collected for each of these elections.

Data analytics were first used to measure the change in party shares of the popular vote within a single state’s elections; next, this resultant data was used to create a country-wide model describing trends in party shares of the popular vote. To account for changes in party shares of the popular vote due to shifting population compositions in relation to identity, Census data provided covariates including the population density, mean income, and percentage of the state population which: identified as white, was over 60 years old, identified as male, and was college-educated.