Session 2J: Stochastic and Deterministic Multigroup Epidemiology
Session Number
Session 2J: 1st Presentation
Advisor(s)
Dr. Jordan Hasler, Wolfram
Location
Room A121
Start Date
26-4-2018 10:35 AM
End Date
26-4-2018 11:20 AM
Abstract
To predict the course of an infection, we created both a stochastic and deterministic model. In the deterministic model, we formulated a system of differential equations. We used the models to explore in further detail the effects of infection parameters (numerical descriptors of the infection) on the stability of the system at a disease-free equilibrium using a matrix method which allowed us to find the epidemic threshold. We analyzed the models and found that the spectral radius, a constant that for a set of parameters related to the basic reproduction number in a one-group case and a threshold value in a multigroup case, directly impacts the epidemic threshold. In addition, we investigated the long-term effects of the infection on the system’s population and tested the accuracy of our models using data from real infections.
Session 2J: Stochastic and Deterministic Multigroup Epidemiology
Room A121
To predict the course of an infection, we created both a stochastic and deterministic model. In the deterministic model, we formulated a system of differential equations. We used the models to explore in further detail the effects of infection parameters (numerical descriptors of the infection) on the stability of the system at a disease-free equilibrium using a matrix method which allowed us to find the epidemic threshold. We analyzed the models and found that the spectral radius, a constant that for a set of parameters related to the basic reproduction number in a one-group case and a threshold value in a multigroup case, directly impacts the epidemic threshold. In addition, we investigated the long-term effects of the infection on the system’s population and tested the accuracy of our models using data from real infections.