Event Title

Session 2J: Stochastic and Deterministic Multigroup Epidemiology

Session Number

Session 2J: 1st Presentation

Advisor(s)

Dr. Jordan Hasler, Wolfram

Location

Room A121

Start Date

26-4-2018 10:35 AM

End Date

26-4-2018 11:20 AM

Abstract

To predict the course of an infection, we created both a stochastic and deterministic model. In the deterministic model, we formulated a system of differential equations. We used the models to explore in further detail the effects of infection parameters (numerical descriptors of the infection) on the stability of the system at a disease-free equilibrium using a matrix method which allowed us to find the epidemic threshold. We analyzed the models and found that the spectral radius, a constant that for a set of parameters related to the basic reproduction number in a one-group case and a threshold value in a multigroup case, directly impacts the epidemic threshold. In addition, we investigated the long-term effects of the infection on the system’s population and tested the accuracy of our models using data from real infections.

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Apr 26th, 10:35 AM Apr 26th, 11:20 AM

Session 2J: Stochastic and Deterministic Multigroup Epidemiology

Room A121

To predict the course of an infection, we created both a stochastic and deterministic model. In the deterministic model, we formulated a system of differential equations. We used the models to explore in further detail the effects of infection parameters (numerical descriptors of the infection) on the stability of the system at a disease-free equilibrium using a matrix method which allowed us to find the epidemic threshold. We analyzed the models and found that the spectral radius, a constant that for a set of parameters related to the basic reproduction number in a one-group case and a threshold value in a multigroup case, directly impacts the epidemic threshold. In addition, we investigated the long-term effects of the infection on the system’s population and tested the accuracy of our models using data from real infections.